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Snow-Thursday

Snow-Thursday

Snow storm this Thursday. I do not see any accumulation estimates yet (Accu Weather 3-5 inches-always play it safe far in advance ) since we are three days away but it looks to me like a big up the coast storm. I estimate 15-22 inches if if doesn't mix with ice too much. It looks like mostly if not all snow.

It will be an historic ice storm to the south but a big dump for us.  Of course, I'm sticking my neck out 3 days before the storm (starting gently Wednesday late night).

So, 15-22 inches Thursday.  I don't know why I do this when snow storms are so tough around here. I guess it's fun & it's just my nature.

MT

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Re: Snow-Thursday

Mark Tabb wrote:

So, 15-22 inches Thursday.  I don't know why I do this when snow storms are so tough around here. I guess it's fun & it's just my nature.

Of course current (Monday night) NOAA prediction is on low side of  AccuWeather:

"NOAA" wrote:

NOAA Forecast for Towson
Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 24. North wind 8 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Snow and sleet before noon, then rain and snow likely. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%

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Re: Snow-Thursday

Hey Steve, note that you are quoting a NOAA forecast for liquid equivalent precipitation at 0.25 to 0.5 inches.  Typically you have somewhere between a 7-12"" per inch of precip conversion to snow (depending on dry fluffy vs. wet or iced) so you are saying 2"" to 6"" of snow and that is what most of the weather sites are guessing with Mark going much higher.
Here is a good chart:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a … ptype=snow
In Columbia and DC, we've got a 60% chance of getting more than 2"" and up in Timonium/Towson it is a 40% chance of more than 2"" of snow accumulation.
We have a 40-50% chance of more than 4"", you guys only a 30-40% chance.
Note that there is a 20-30% chance of DC and Bethesda getting more than 8"" this week while that drops to 10-20% for Columbia/Tim/Towson and 5-10% chance East of I-95 North of Balto beltway.
As Mark says, the experts are going with 2-5 inches, he is going much higher AND he is on the WRONG end of this one, it is a Virginia storm and then mostly tracking offshore to our East.

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Re: Snow-Thursday

If you check Accu Weather Daily it now (Tuesday AM) shows:

Wed night - 7.1 ""

Thursday day - 5.1 ""

Thursday night - 2.5 ""

Total - 14.7 inches

They are all catching up to me. Of course I know that 50 miles & 2 degrees makes a huge difference. I still think that we are part of the sweet spot!

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Re: Snow-Thursday

BTW:
We have 15 inches here. Columbia has 15"" too.
They say Glyndon had 18"" an hour ago. 1-4"" more inches on the other side of the storm later today/tonight.

I predicted 10-15"" to my friends and posted 15-22"" on the BBC site a few days ago when they were calling for 2 inches. I said on the BBC site that the sleet might keep the accumulations down.

So, I NAILED IT!

MT

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Re: Snow-Thursday

Hey Mark, you wanna go 2 for 2. According to Accuweather there's a possibility another storm moving in Fri night into Sat. According to them maybe 1-3 inches, that's manageable, sort of. but they were wrong before. What do you see for this?
Jim

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